diff --git a/packages/server/src/server/workspace-git-fetch.test.ts b/packages/server/src/server/workspace-git-fetch.test.ts
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..c6d1c943d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/packages/server/src/server/workspace-git-fetch.test.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,78 @@
+import { describe, expect, test } from "vitest";
+
+import {
+  diffWorkspaceGitRefs,
+  diffWorkspaceGitRemoteRefs,
+  parseWorkspaceGitRefs,
+} from "./workspace-git-fetch.js";
+
+describe("workspace Git remote refs", () => {
+  test("parses refs for semantic before/after comparison", () => {
+    expect(
+      parseWorkspaceGitRefs(
+        [
+          "refs/remotes/origin/main\0aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa",
+          "refs/remotes/upstream/topic\0bbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb",
+          "refs/heads/main\0cccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccc",
+        ].join("\n"),
+      ),
+    ).toEqual(
+      new Map([
+        ["refs/remotes/origin/main", "aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa"],
+        ["refs/remotes/upstream/topic", "bbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb"],
+        ["refs/heads/main", "cccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccc"],
+      ]),
+    );
+  });
+
+  test("distinguishes remote changes from concurrent local ref changes", () => {
+    expect(
+      diffWorkspaceGitRefs(
+        new Map([
+          ["refs/remotes/origin/main", "aaaaaaaa"],
+          ["refs/heads/topic", "bbbbbbbb"],
+        ]),
+        new Map([
+          ["refs/remotes/origin/main", "cccccccc"],
+          ["refs/heads/topic", "dddddddd"],
+        ]),
+      ),
+    ).toEqual({
+      remoteChanges: [
+        {
+          kind: "moved",
+          ref: "origin/main",
+          beforeOid: "aaaaaaaa",
+          afterOid: "cccccccc",
+        },
+      ],
+      nonRemoteRefsChanged: true,
+    });
+  });
+
+  test("reports added, changed, and deleted remote refs", () => {
+    expect(
+      diffWorkspaceGitRemoteRefs(
+        new Map([
+          ["origin/main", "aaaaaaaa"],
+          ["origin/deleted", "bbbbbbbb"],
+          ["origin/unchanged", "cccccccc"],
+        ]),
+        new Map([
+          ["origin/main", "dddddddd"],
+          ["origin/added", "eeeeeeee"],
+          ["origin/unchanged", "cccccccc"],
+        ]),
+      ),
+    ).toEqual([
+      {
+        kind: "moved",
+        ref: "origin/main",
+        beforeOid: "aaaaaaaa",
+        afterOid: "dddddddd",
+      },
+      { kind: "added", ref: "origin/added", afterOid: "eeeeeeee" },
+      { kind: "deleted", ref: "origin/deleted", beforeOid: "bbbbbbbb" },
+    ]);
+  });
+});
diff --git a/packages/server/src/server/workspace-git-fetch.ts b/packages/server/src/server/workspace-git-fetch.ts
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..795066c38
--- /dev/null
+++ b/packages/server/src/server/workspace-git-fetch.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,139 @@
+import { runGitCommand } from "../utils/run-git-command.js";
+
+export interface WorkspaceGitFetchResult {
+  changes: WorkspaceGitRemoteRefChange[] | null;
+  nonRemoteRefsChanged?: boolean;
+  remoteRefs?: ReadonlySet<string>;
+  error: unknown | null;
+}
+
+export interface WorkspaceGitFetchObserver {
+  onRefSnapshot(phase: "before" | "after"): void;
+}
+
+export type WorkspaceGitRemoteRefChange =
+  | { kind: "moved"; ref: string; beforeOid: string; afterOid: string }
+  | { kind: "added"; ref: string; afterOid: string }
+  | { kind: "deleted"; ref: string; beforeOid: string };
+
+export async function fetchWorkspaceGitRemote(
+  cwd: string,
+  observer: WorkspaceGitFetchObserver,
+): Promise<WorkspaceGitFetchResult> {
+  let before: Map<string, string> | null = null;
+  let after: Map<string, string> | null = null;
+  let error: unknown | null = null;
+  try {
+    before = await readWorkspaceGitRefs(cwd);
+    observer.onRefSnapshot("before");
+  } catch (caught) {
+    error = caught;
+  }
+  try {
+    await runGitCommand(["fetch", "origin", "--prune"], {
+      cwd,
+      envOverlay: { GIT_TERMINAL_PROMPT: "0" },
+      timeout: 120_000,
+    });
+  } catch (caught) {
+    error ??= caught;
+  }
+  try {
+    after = await readWorkspaceGitRefs(cwd);
+  } catch (caught) {
+    error ??= caught;
+  }
+  if (!before || !after) {
+    return { changes: null, error };
+  }
+  const diff = diffWorkspaceGitRefs(before, after);
+  const result = {
+    changes: diff.remoteChanges,
+    nonRemoteRefsChanged: diff.nonRemoteRefsChanged,
+    remoteRefs: collectWorkspaceGitRemoteRefs(after),
+    error,
+  } satisfies WorkspaceGitFetchResult;
+  observer.onRefSnapshot("after");
+  return result;
+}
+
+function collectWorkspaceGitRemoteRefs(refs: ReadonlyMap<string, string>): Set<string> {
+  const remotePrefix = "refs/remotes/";
+  return new Set(
+    [...refs.keys()]
+      .filter((ref) => ref.startsWith(remotePrefix))
+      .map((ref) => ref.slice(remotePrefix.length)),
+  );
+}
+
+async function readWorkspaceGitRefs(cwd: string): Promise<Map<string, string>> {
+  const { stdout } = await runGitCommand(["for-each-ref", "--format=%(refname)%00%(objectname)"], {
+    cwd,
+  });
+  return parseWorkspaceGitRefs(stdout);
+}
+
+export function parseWorkspaceGitRefs(stdout: string): Map<string, string> {
+  const refs = new Map<string, string>();
+  for (const line of stdout.split("\n")) {
+    const [ref, objectId] = line.split("\0");
+    if (ref?.startsWith("refs/") && objectId) {
+      refs.set(ref, objectId);
+    }
+  }
+  return refs;
+}
+
+export interface WorkspaceGitRefDiff {
+  remoteChanges: WorkspaceGitRemoteRefChange[];
+  nonRemoteRefsChanged: boolean;
+}
+
+export function diffWorkspaceGitRefs(
+  before: ReadonlyMap<string, string>,
+  after: ReadonlyMap<string, string>,
+): WorkspaceGitRefDiff {
+  const remotePrefix = "refs/remotes/";
+  const beforeRemote = new Map<string, string>();
+  const afterRemote = new Map<string, string>();
+  let nonRemoteRefsChanged = false;
+  for (const [ref, objectId] of before) {
+    if (ref.startsWith(remotePrefix)) {
+      beforeRemote.set(ref.slice(remotePrefix.length), objectId);
+    } else if (after.get(ref) !== objectId) {
+      nonRemoteRefsChanged = true;
+    }
+  }
+  for (const [ref, objectId] of after) {
+    if (ref.startsWith(remotePrefix)) {
+      afterRemote.set(ref.slice(remotePrefix.length), objectId);
+    } else if (!before.has(ref)) {
+      nonRemoteRefsChanged = true;
+    }
+  }
+  return {
+    remoteChanges: diffWorkspaceGitRemoteRefs(beforeRemote, afterRemote),
+    nonRemoteRefsChanged,
+  };
+}
+
+export function diffWorkspaceGitRemoteRefs(
+  before: ReadonlyMap<string, string>,
+  after: ReadonlyMap<string, string>,
+): WorkspaceGitRemoteRefChange[] {
+  const changes: WorkspaceGitRemoteRefChange[] = [];
+  for (const [ref, objectId] of after) {
+    const beforeOid = before.get(ref);
+    if (beforeOid === undefined) {
+      changes.push({ kind: "added", ref, afterOid: objectId });
+    } else if (beforeOid !== objectId) {
+      changes.push({ kind: "moved", ref, beforeOid, afterOid: objectId });
+    }
+  }
+  for (const [ref, beforeOid] of before) {
+    if (!after.has(ref)) {
+      changes.push({ kind: "deleted", ref, beforeOid });
+    }
+  }
+  return changes;
+}
diff --git a/packages/server/src/server/workspace-git-noop-fetch.local.e2e.test.ts b/packages/server/src/server/workspace-git-noop-fetch.local.e2e.test.ts
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..4634daa8c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/packages/server/src/server/workspace-git-noop-fetch.local.e2e.test.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,466 @@
+import { execFile, execFileSync } from "node:child_process";
+import { mkdirSync, mkdtempSync, rmSync, writeFileSync } from "node:fs";
+import { tmpdir } from "node:os";
+import { join } from "node:path";
+
+import pino from "pino";
+import { afterAll, beforeAll, expect, test } from "vitest";
+
+import {
+  getGitCommandMetrics,
+  startGitCommandMetrics,
+  stopGitCommandMetrics,
+  waitForGitCommandMetricsIdle,
+} from "../utils/run-git-command.js";
+import { fetchWorkspaceGitRemote } from "./workspace-git-fetch.js";
+import {
+  WorkspaceGitServiceImpl,
+  getWorkspaceGitSelfHealPhaseMs,
+} from "./workspace-git-service.js";
+
+const SIBLING_COUNT = 59;
+const REMOTE_REF_COUNT = 19_500;
+const cleanupPaths: string[] = [];
+let fixture: ReturnType<typeof seedFetchFixture>;
+
+beforeAll(() => {
+  fixture = seedFetchFixture();
+}, 120_000);
+
+afterAll(() => {
+  for (const path of cleanupPaths.splice(0)) {
+    rmSync(path, { recursive: true, force: true });
+  }
+}, 120_000);
+
+function git(cwd: string, args: string[], input?: string): string {
+  return execFileSync("git", args, {
+    cwd,
+    encoding: "utf8",
+    input,
+    env: {
+      ...process.env,
+      GIT_CONFIG_NOSYSTEM: "1",
+      GIT_TERMINAL_PROMPT: "0",
+    },
+  }).trim();
+}
+
+function gitAsync(cwd: string, args: string[]): Promise<void> {
+  return new Promise((resolve, reject) => {
+    execFile(
+      "git",
+      args,
+      {
+        cwd,
+        env: {
+          ...process.env,
+          GIT_CONFIG_NOSYSTEM: "1",
+          GIT_TERMINAL_PROMPT: "0",
+        },
+      },
+      (error) => {
+        if (error) reject(error);
+        else resolve();
+      },
+    );
+  });
+}
+
+function createDeferred<T>() {
+  let resolve!: (value: T | PromiseLike<T>) => void;
+  let reject!: (reason?: unknown) => void;
+  const promise = new Promise<T>((resolvePromise, rejectPromise) => {
+    resolve = resolvePromise;
+    reject = rejectPromise;
+  });
+  return { promise, reject, resolve };
+}
+
+function hasSubmittedGitOperation(operation: string): boolean {
+  return getGitCommandMetrics().submissions.some((command) => command.args[0] === operation);
+}
+
+async function waitForCondition(
+  description: string,
+  condition: () => boolean,
+  timeoutMs = 120_000,
+): Promise<void> {
+  const startedAt = Date.now();
+  while (!condition()) {
+    if (Date.now() - startedAt >= timeoutMs) {
+      throw new Error(`Timed out waiting for ${description}`);
+    }
+    await new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, 25));
+  }
+}
+
+function seedFetchFixture(): {
+  originRoot: string;
+  paseoHome: string;
+  repoRoot: string;
+  worktrees: string[];
+} {
+  const fixtureRoot = mkdtempSync(join(tmpdir(), "paseo-noop-fetch-"));
+  cleanupPaths.push(fixtureRoot);
+  const repoRoot = join(fixtureRoot, "repo");
+  const originRoot = join(fixtureRoot, "origin.git");
+  const paseoHome = join(fixtureRoot, "paseo-home");
+  const worktreesRoot = join(fixtureRoot, "worktrees");
+  mkdirSync(repoRoot, { recursive: true });
+  mkdirSync(paseoHome, { recursive: true });
+  mkdirSync(worktreesRoot, { recursive: true });
+
+  git(repoRoot, ["init", "-b", "main"]);
+  git(repoRoot, ["config", "user.email", "repro@example.com"]);
+  git(repoRoot, ["config", "user.name", "Repro"]);
+  writeFileSync(join(repoRoot, "README.md"), "no-op fetch repro\n");
+  git(repoRoot, ["add", "README.md"]);
+  git(repoRoot, ["commit", "-m", "initial"]);
+
+  git(fixtureRoot, ["init", "--bare", originRoot]);
+  git(repoRoot, ["remote", "add", "origin", originRoot]);
+  git(repoRoot, ["push", "--quiet", "-u", "origin", "main"]);
+
+  const head = git(repoRoot, ["rev-parse", "HEAD"]);
+  const remoteRefUpdates = Array.from(
+    { length: REMOTE_REF_COUNT },
+    (_, index) => `update refs/heads/load/${index.toString().padStart(5, "0")} ${head}`,
+  ).join("\n");
+  git(originRoot, ["update-ref", "--stdin"], `${remoteRefUpdates}\n`);
+  git(originRoot, ["pack-refs", "--all", "--prune"]);
+  git(repoRoot, ["fetch", "--quiet", "origin", "--prune"]);
+  git(repoRoot, ["pack-refs", "--all", "--prune"]);
+
+  const worktrees = Array.from({ length: SIBLING_COUNT }, (_, index) => {
+    let suffix = 0;
+    let branch = `sibling-${index}-${suffix}`;
+    let cwd = join(worktreesRoot, branch);
+    while (getWorkspaceGitSelfHealPhaseMs(cwd) < 50_000) {
+      suffix += 1;
+      branch = `sibling-${index}-${suffix}`;
+      cwd = join(worktreesRoot, branch);
+    }
+    git(repoRoot, ["worktree", "add", "--quiet", "-b", branch, cwd, "HEAD"]);
+    return cwd;
+  });
+
+  return { originRoot, paseoHome, repoRoot, worktrees };
+}
+
+function advanceOriginRef(originRoot: string, ref: string): void {
+  git(originRoot, ["config", "user.email", "repro@example.com"]);
+  git(originRoot, ["config", "user.name", "Repro"]);
+  const previous = git(originRoot, ["rev-parse", ref]);
+  const tree = git(originRoot, ["show", "-s", "--format=%T", previous]);
+  const next = git(originRoot, ["commit-tree", tree, "-p", previous], `advance ${ref}\n`);
+  git(originRoot, ["update-ref", ref, next, previous]);
+}
+
+function advanceOriginMain(originRoot: string): void {
+  advanceOriginRef(originRoot, "refs/heads/main");
+}
+
+async function measureFetchScenario(
+  name: string,
+  beforeFetch: () => void,
+  duringFetch?: () => Promise<void>,
+  quietMs = 1_500,
+): Promise<{
+  fetchCount: number;
+  gitCommands: number;
+  nonRemoteRefsChanged: boolean | undefined;
+  operations: Record<string, number>;
+  snapshotUpdates: number;
+}> {
+  const fetchStarted = createDeferred<void>();
+  const releaseFetch = createDeferred<void>();
+  let fetchCount = 0;
+  let fetchChangedNonRemoteRefs: boolean | undefined;
+
+  const service = new WorkspaceGitServiceImpl({
+    logger: pino({ level: "silent" }),
+    paseoHome: fixture.paseoHome,
+    deps: {
+      runGitFetch: async (cwd, observer) => {
+        fetchStarted.resolve();
+        await releaseFetch.promise;
+        const result = await fetchWorkspaceGitRemote(cwd, observer);
+        fetchChangedNonRemoteRefs = result.nonRemoteRefsChanged;
+        fetchCount += 1;
+        return result;
+      },
+    },
+  });
+  const snapshotCounts = new Map(fixture.worktrees.map((cwd) => [cwd, 0]));
+  const subscriptions = fixture.worktrees.map((cwd) =>
+    service.registerWorkspace({ cwd }, () => {
+      snapshotCounts.set(cwd, (snapshotCounts.get(cwd) ?? 0) + 1);
+    }),
+  );
+
+  try {
+    await fetchStarted.promise;
+    await waitForCondition(
+      "all sibling workspace snapshots to warm before the measured fetch runs",
+      () =>
+        [...snapshotCounts.values()].every((count) => count >= 1) &&
+        service.getMetrics().repositoryWorkspaceLinkCount === SIBLING_COUNT &&
+        service.getMetrics().workspaceRefreshInFlightCount === 0 &&
+        service.getMetrics().workspaceRefreshQueuedCount === 0,
+    );
+
+    beforeFetch();
+
+    const snapshotBaseline = new Map(snapshotCounts);
+    const fetchCycleStartedAt = Date.now();
+    startGitCommandMetrics();
+    releaseFetch.resolve();
+    await duringFetch?.();
+    await waitForGitCommandMetricsIdle({ quietMs, timeoutMs: 120_000 });
+    const postFetch = stopGitCommandMetrics();
+    const snapshotUpdatesAfterFetch = [...snapshotCounts].reduce(
+      (total, [cwd, count]) => total + Math.max(0, count - (snapshotBaseline.get(cwd) ?? 0)),
+      0,
+    );
+
+    const operations = Object.fromEntries(
+      [...Map.groupBy(postFetch.submissions, (command) => command.args[0] ?? "").entries()]
+        .map(([operation, commands]) => [operation, commands.length] as const)
+        .sort(([left], [right]) => left.localeCompare(right)),
+    );
+    console.info(
+      "[workspace-git-fetch]",
+      JSON.stringify({
+        scenario: name,
+        siblingCount: SIBLING_COUNT,
+        remoteRefCount: REMOTE_REF_COUNT,
+        fetchCount,
+        durationMs: Date.now() - fetchCycleStartedAt,
+        gitCommands: postFetch.submitted,
+        maxConcurrentGitCommands: postFetch.maxConcurrent,
+        operations,
+        snapshotUpdates: snapshotUpdatesAfterFetch,
+      }),
+    );
+
+    return {
+      fetchCount,
+      gitCommands: postFetch.submitted,
+      nonRemoteRefsChanged: fetchChangedNonRemoteRefs,
+      operations,
+      snapshotUpdates: snapshotUpdatesAfterFetch,
+    };
+  } finally {
+    for (const subscription of subscriptions) {
+      subscription.unsubscribe();
+    }
+    service.dispose();
+  }
+}
+
+async function measureExternalFetchScenario(
+  name: string,
+  beforeFetch: () => void,
+): Promise<{
+  gitCommands: number;
+  operations: Record<string, number>;
+  snapshotUpdates: number;
+}> {
+  const initialFetchCompleted = createDeferred<void>();
+  const service = new WorkspaceGitServiceImpl({
+    logger: pino({ level: "silent" }),
+    paseoHome: fixture.paseoHome,
+    deps: {
+      runGitFetch: async (cwd, observer) => {
+        const result = await fetchWorkspaceGitRemote(cwd, observer);
+        initialFetchCompleted.resolve();
+        return result;
+      },
+    },
+  });
+  const snapshotCounts = new Map(fixture.worktrees.map((cwd) => [cwd, 0]));
+  const subscriptions = fixture.worktrees.map((cwd) =>
+    service.registerWorkspace({ cwd }, () => {
+      snapshotCounts.set(cwd, (snapshotCounts.get(cwd) ?? 0) + 1);
+    }),
+  );
+
+  try {
+    await initialFetchCompleted.promise;
+    await waitForCondition(
+      "all sibling workspace snapshots to warm before the external fetch runs",
+      () =>
+        [...snapshotCounts.values()].every((count) => count >= 1) &&
+        service.getMetrics().repositoryWorkspaceLinkCount === SIBLING_COUNT &&
+        service.getMetrics().workspaceRefreshInFlightCount === 0 &&
+        service.getMetrics().workspaceRefreshQueuedCount === 0,
+    );
+    await new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, 6_000));
+
+    const snapshotBaseline = new Map(snapshotCounts);
+    beforeFetch();
+    const fetchCycleStartedAt = Date.now();
+    startGitCommandMetrics();
+    await gitAsync(fixture.repoRoot, ["fetch", "origin", "--prune"]);
+    await waitForGitCommandMetricsIdle({ quietMs: 6_000, timeoutMs: 120_000 });
+    const postFetch = stopGitCommandMetrics();
+    const snapshotUpdates = [...snapshotCounts].reduce(
+      (total, [cwd, count]) => total + Math.max(0, count - (snapshotBaseline.get(cwd) ?? 0)),
+      0,
+    );
+    const operations = Object.fromEntries(
+      [...Map.groupBy(postFetch.submissions, (command) => command.args[0] ?? "").entries()]
+        .map(([operation, commands]) => [operation, commands.length] as const)
+        .sort(([left], [right]) => left.localeCompare(right)),
+    );
+    console.info(
+      "[workspace-git-fetch]",
+      JSON.stringify({
+        scenario: name,
+        siblingCount: SIBLING_COUNT,
+        remoteRefCount: REMOTE_REF_COUNT,
+        durationMs: Date.now() - fetchCycleStartedAt,
+        gitCommands: postFetch.submitted,
+        maxConcurrentGitCommands: postFetch.maxConcurrent,
+        operations,
+        snapshotUpdates,
+      }),
+    );
+    return { gitCommands: postFetch.submitted, operations, snapshotUpdates };
+  } finally {
+    for (const subscription of subscriptions) subscription.unsubscribe();
+    service.dispose();
+  }
+}
+
+test("a no-op fetch does not refresh sibling worktrees", async () => {
+  expect(await measureFetchScenario("a no-op fetch", () => {})).toEqual({
+    fetchCount: 1,
+    gitCommands: 3,
+    nonRemoteRefsChanged: false,
+    operations: { fetch: 1, "for-each-ref": 2 },
+    snapshotUpdates: 0,
+  });
+}, 240_000);
+
+test("an origin/main update narrowly refreshes 59 sibling worktrees", async () => {
+  expect(
+    await measureFetchScenario("an origin/main update", () => {
+      advanceOriginMain(fixture.originRoot);
+    }),
+  ).toEqual({
+    fetchCount: 1,
+    gitCommands: 239,
+    nonRemoteRefsChanged: false,
+    operations: {
+      diff: 59,
+      fetch: 1,
+      "for-each-ref": 2,
+      "ls-files": 59,
+      "merge-base": 59,
+      "rev-list": 59,
+    },
+    snapshotUpdates: 59,
+  });
+}, 240_000);
+
+test("an overlapping external no-op fetch stays idle", async () => {
+  const result = await measureFetchScenario(
+    "an overlapping external no-op fetch",
+    () => {},
+    () => gitAsync(fixture.repoRoot, ["fetch", "origin", "--prune"]),
+    6_000,
+  );
+  expect(result).toEqual({
+    fetchCount: 1,
+    gitCommands: 3,
+    nonRemoteRefsChanged: false,
+    operations: { fetch: 1, "for-each-ref": 2 },
+    snapshotUpdates: 0,
+  });
+}, 240_000);
+
+test("an overlapping external fetch of one main update stays narrow", async () => {
+  const result = await measureFetchScenario(
+    "an overlapping external fetch of one main update",
+    () => {
+      advanceOriginMain(fixture.originRoot);
+    },
+    () => gitAsync(fixture.repoRoot, ["fetch", "origin", "--prune"]),
+    6_000,
+  );
+  expect(result).toEqual({
+    fetchCount: 1,
+    gitCommands: 239,
+    nonRemoteRefsChanged: false,
+    operations: {
+      diff: 59,
+      fetch: 1,
+      "for-each-ref": 2,
+      "ls-files": 59,
+      "merge-base": 59,
+      "rev-list": 59,
+    },
+    snapshotUpdates: 59,
+  });
+}, 240_000);
+
+test("an overlapping external fetch of an unrelated branch stays idle", async () => {
+  const result = await measureFetchScenario(
+    "an overlapping external fetch of an unrelated branch",
+    () => {
+      advanceOriginRef(fixture.originRoot, "refs/heads/load/00000");
+    },
+    () => gitAsync(fixture.repoRoot, ["fetch", "origin", "--prune"]),
+    6_000,
+  );
+  expect(result).toEqual({
+    fetchCount: 1,
+    gitCommands: 3,
+    nonRemoteRefsChanged: false,
+    operations: { fetch: 1, "for-each-ref": 2 },
+    snapshotUpdates: 0,
+  });
+}, 240_000);
+
+test("a second same-ref fetch during calculation stays narrow", async () => {
+  const result = await measureFetchScenario(
+    "a second same-ref fetch during calculation",
+    () => {
+      advanceOriginMain(fixture.originRoot);
+    },
+    async () => {
+      await waitForCondition("the first narrow calculation to start", () =>
+        hasSubmittedGitOperation("rev-list"),
+      );
+      advanceOriginMain(fixture.originRoot);
+      await gitAsync(fixture.repoRoot, ["fetch", "origin", "--prune"]);
+    },
+    6_000,
+  );
+  expect(result).toEqual({
+    fetchCount: 1,
+    gitCommands: 475,
+    nonRemoteRefsChanged: false,
+    operations: {
+      diff: 118,
+      fetch: 1,
+      "for-each-ref": 2,
+      "ls-files": 118,
+      "merge-base": 118,
+      "rev-list": 118,
+    },
+    snapshotUpdates: 118,
+  });
+}, 240_000);
+
+test("a standalone external fetch of an unrelated packed branch stays idle", async () => {
+  const result = await measureExternalFetchScenario(
+    "a standalone external fetch of an unrelated packed branch",
+    () => {
+      advanceOriginRef(fixture.originRoot, "refs/heads/load/00001");
+    },
+  );
+  expect(result).toEqual({ gitCommands: 0, operations: {}, snapshotUpdates: 0 });
+}, 240_000);
diff --git a/packages/server/src/server/workspace-git-service.observation.test.ts b/packages/server/src/server/workspace-git-service.observation.test.ts
index 6ca28b81d..7f7f0db35 100644
--- a/packages/server/src/server/workspace-git-service.observation.test.ts
+++ b/packages/server/src/server/workspace-git-service.observation.test.ts
@@ -157,6 +157,10 @@ function createService(
     deps: {
       subscribe: watcher.subscribe,
       getCheckoutSnapshotFacts: vi.fn(async (cwd: string) => createCheckoutFacts(cwd)),
+      getCheckoutRefDerivedState: vi.fn(async (_cwd, facts, current) => ({
+        ...current,
+        upstreamStatus: facts.upstreamStatus,
+      })),
       getCheckoutStatus,
       getCheckoutShortstat,
       getCheckoutWorktreeState: vi.fn(async (cwd: string) => {
@@ -441,6 +445,441 @@ describe("WorkspaceGitService checkout observation", () => {
     service.dispose();
   });
 
+  test("a loose remote-ref watcher echo during fetch coalesces into the narrow refresh", async () => {
+    const watcher = createWatcherHarness();
+    const releaseFetch = createDeferred<void>();
+    const getCheckoutSnapshotFacts = vi.fn(async (cwd: string) => ({
+      ...createCheckoutFacts(cwd),
+      currentBranch: "feature",
+      remoteUrl: "https://example.com/repo.git",
+      resolvedBaseRef: "main",
+      comparisonBaseRef: "origin/main",
+    }));
+    const getCheckoutRefDerivedState = vi.fn(async (_cwd, facts, current) => ({
+      ...current,
+      upstreamStatus: facts.upstreamStatus,
+    }));
+    const service = createService(watcher, {
+      getCheckoutSnapshotFacts,
+      getCheckoutRefDerivedState,
+      getCheckoutStatus: vi.fn(async (cwd: string) =>
+        createCheckoutStatus(cwd, {
+          currentBranch: "feature",
+          baseRef: "main",
+          hasRemote: true,
+          remoteUrl: "https://example.com/repo.git",
+        }),
+      ),
+      hasOriginRemote: vi.fn(async () => true),
+      runGitFetch: vi.fn(async (_cwd, observer) => {
+        observer?.onRefSnapshot("before");
+        await releaseFetch.promise;
+        observer?.onRefSnapshot("after");
+        return {
+          changes: [{ kind: "moved" as const, ref: "origin/main", beforeOid: "a", afterOid: "b" }],
+          error: null,
+        };
+      }),
+    });
+    const listener = vi.fn();
+    const subscription = service.registerWorkspace({ cwd: REPO_CWD }, listener);
+    await vi.waitFor(() => {
+      expect(service.getMetrics().fetchInFlightCount).toBe(1);
+      expect(service.getMetrics().workspaceRefreshInFlightCount).toBe(0);
+    });
+    listener.mockClear();
+
+    watcher.records
+      .find((record) => record.directory === GIT_DIR)
+      ?.callback(null, [
+        { path: path.join(GIT_DIR, "refs", "remotes", "origin", "main"), type: "create" },
+      ]);
+    releaseFetch.resolve();
+    await flushPromises();
+    await vi.advanceTimersByTimeAsync(1_000);
+    await vi.waitFor(() => {
+      expect(getCheckoutRefDerivedState).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(1);
+    });
+
+    expect(getCheckoutSnapshotFacts).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(1);
+    expect(listener).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(1);
+
+    subscription.unsubscribe();
+    service.dispose();
+  });
+
+  test("a packed-refs event covered by the fetch snapshot uses the exact ref delta", async () => {
+    const watcher = createWatcherHarness();
+    const fetchWindowOpen = createDeferred<void>();
+    const releaseFetch = createDeferred<void>();
+    const getCheckoutSnapshotFacts = vi.fn(async (cwd: string) => ({
+      ...createCheckoutFacts(cwd),
+      currentBranch: "feature",
+      remoteUrl: "https://example.com/repo.git",
+      resolvedBaseRef: "main",
+      comparisonBaseRef: "origin/main",
+    }));
+    const getCheckoutRefDerivedState = vi.fn();
+    const service = createService(watcher, {
+      getCheckoutSnapshotFacts,
+      getCheckoutRefDerivedState,
+      hasOriginRemote: vi.fn(async () => true),
+      runGitFetch: vi.fn(async (_cwd, observer) => {
+        observer.onRefSnapshot("before");
+        fetchWindowOpen.resolve();
+        await releaseFetch.promise;
+        observer.onRefSnapshot("after");
+        return {
+          changes: [
+            {
+              kind: "moved" as const,
+              ref: "origin/unrelated",
+              beforeOid: "a",
+              afterOid: "b",
+            },
+          ],
+          nonRemoteRefsChanged: false,
+          remoteRefs: new Set(["origin/main", "origin/unrelated"]),
+          error: null,
+        };
+      }),
+    });
+    const subscription = service.registerWorkspace({ cwd: REPO_CWD }, vi.fn());
+    await fetchWindowOpen.promise;
+    await vi.waitFor(() => {
+      expect(getCheckoutSnapshotFacts).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(1);
+    });
+
+    watcher.records
+      .find((record) => record.directory === GIT_DIR)
+      ?.callback(null, [{ path: path.join(GIT_DIR, "packed-refs"), type: "update" }]);
+    releaseFetch.resolve();
+    await flushPromises();
+    await vi.advanceTimersByTimeAsync(1_000);
+
+    expect(getCheckoutSnapshotFacts).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(1);
+    expect(getCheckoutRefDerivedState).not.toHaveBeenCalled();
+
+    subscription.unsubscribe();
+    service.dispose();
+  });
+
+  test.each(["before", "after"] as const)(
+    "a packed-refs event %s the fetch snapshot remains conservative",
+    async (phase) => {
+      const watcher = createWatcherHarness();
+      const afterSnapshot = createDeferred<void>();
+      const releaseFetch = createDeferred<void>();
+      const getCheckoutSnapshotFacts = vi.fn(async (cwd: string) => ({
+        ...createCheckoutFacts(cwd),
+        remoteUrl: "https://example.com/repo.git",
+      }));
+      const runGitFetch = vi.fn(async (_cwd, observer) => {
+        if (phase === "before") {
+          await releaseFetch.promise;
+          observer.onRefSnapshot("before");
+          observer.onRefSnapshot("after");
+        } else {
+          observer.onRefSnapshot("before");
+          observer.onRefSnapshot("after");
+          afterSnapshot.resolve();
+          await releaseFetch.promise;
+        }
+        return {
+          changes: [],
+          nonRemoteRefsChanged: false,
+          remoteRefs: new Set(["origin/main"]),
+          error: null,
+        };
+      });
+      const service = createService(watcher, {
+        getCheckoutSnapshotFacts,
+        hasOriginRemote: vi.fn(async () => true),
+        runGitFetch,
+      });
+      const subscription = service.registerWorkspace({ cwd: REPO_CWD }, vi.fn());
+      await vi.waitFor(() => {
+        expect(runGitFetch).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(1);
+        expect(getWatcherRecordsForDirectory(watcher, GIT_DIR)).toHaveLength(1);
+      });
+      if (phase === "after") await afterSnapshot.promise;
+
+      watcher.records
+        .find((record) => record.directory === GIT_DIR)
+        ?.callback(null, [{ path: path.join(GIT_DIR, "packed-refs"), type: "update" }]);
+      releaseFetch.resolve();
+      await vi.waitFor(() => {
+        expect(service.getMetrics().fetchInFlightCount).toBe(0);
+      });
+      await vi.advanceTimersByTimeAsync(1_000);
+      await vi.waitFor(() => {
+        expect(getCheckoutSnapshotFacts).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(2);
+      });
+
+      subscription.unsubscribe();
+      service.dispose();
+    },
+  );
+
+  test("a post-snapshot delete overrides the fetch's moved-ref classification", async () => {
+    const watcher = createWatcherHarness();
+    const afterSnapshot = createDeferred<void>();
+    const releaseFetch = createDeferred<void>();
+    const getCheckoutSnapshotFacts = vi.fn(async (cwd: string) => ({
+      ...createCheckoutFacts(cwd),
+      remoteUrl: "https://example.com/repo.git",
+    }));
+    const getCheckoutRefDerivedState = vi.fn();
+    const service = createService(watcher, {
+      getCheckoutSnapshotFacts,
+      getCheckoutRefDerivedState,
+      hasOriginRemote: vi.fn(async () => true),
+      runGitFetch: vi.fn(async (_cwd, observer) => {
+        observer.onRefSnapshot("before");
+        observer.onRefSnapshot("after");
+        afterSnapshot.resolve();
+        await releaseFetch.promise;
+        return {
+          changes: [{ kind: "moved" as const, ref: "origin/main", beforeOid: "a", afterOid: "b" }],
+          nonRemoteRefsChanged: false,
+          remoteRefs: new Set(["origin/main"]),
+          error: null,
+        };
+      }),
+    });
+    const subscription = service.registerWorkspace({ cwd: REPO_CWD }, vi.fn());
+    await afterSnapshot.promise;
+    await vi.waitFor(() => {
+      expect(getCheckoutSnapshotFacts).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(1);
+    });
+
+    watcher.records
+      .find((record) => record.directory === GIT_DIR)
+      ?.callback(null, [
+        { path: path.join(GIT_DIR, "refs", "remotes", "origin", "main"), type: "delete" },
+      ]);
+    releaseFetch.resolve();
+    await vi.waitFor(() => {
+      expect(service.getMetrics().fetchInFlightCount).toBe(0);
+    });
+    await vi.advanceTimersByTimeAsync(1_000);
+    await vi.waitFor(() => {
+      expect(getCheckoutSnapshotFacts).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(2);
+    });
+    expect(getCheckoutRefDerivedState).not.toHaveBeenCalled();
+
+    subscription.unsubscribe();
+    service.dispose();
+  });
+
+  test("known packed remote refs materialize narrowly while namespace directories are ignored", async () => {
+    const watcher = createWatcherHarness();
+    const getCheckoutSnapshotFacts = vi.fn(async (cwd: string) => ({
+      ...createCheckoutFacts(cwd),
+      currentBranch: "feature",
+      remoteUrl: "https://example.com/repo.git",
+      resolvedBaseRef: "main",
+      comparisonBaseRef: "origin/main",
+    }));
+    const getCheckoutRefDerivedState = vi.fn(async (_cwd, facts, current) => ({
+      ...current,
+      upstreamStatus: facts.upstreamStatus,
+    }));
+    const service = createService(watcher, {
+      getCheckoutSnapshotFacts,
+      getCheckoutRefDerivedState,
+      hasOriginRemote: vi.fn(async () => true),
+      runGitFetch: vi.fn(async (_cwd, observer) => {
+        observer.onRefSnapshot("before");
+        observer.onRefSnapshot("after");
+        return {
+          changes: [],
+          nonRemoteRefsChanged: false,
+          remoteRefs: new Set(["origin/main", "origin/load/00001"]),
+          error: null,
+        };
+      }),
+    });
+    const subscription = service.registerWorkspace({ cwd: REPO_CWD }, vi.fn());
+    await vi.waitFor(() => {
+      expect(service.getMetrics().fetchInFlightCount).toBe(0);
+      expect(getCheckoutSnapshotFacts).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(1);
+    });
+
+    const repoWatcher = watcher.records.find((record) => record.directory === GIT_DIR);
+    repoWatcher?.callback(null, [
+      { path: path.join(GIT_DIR, "refs", "remotes", "origin", "load"), type: "create" },
+      {
+        path: path.join(GIT_DIR, "refs", "remotes", "origin", "load", "00001"),
+        type: "create",
+      },
+    ]);
+    await vi.advanceTimersByTimeAsync(1_000);
+    expect(getCheckoutSnapshotFacts).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(1);
+    expect(getCheckoutRefDerivedState).not.toHaveBeenCalled();
+
+    repoWatcher?.callback(null, [
+      { path: path.join(GIT_DIR, "refs", "remotes", "origin", "main"), type: "create" },
+    ]);
+    await vi.advanceTimersByTimeAsync(1_000);
+    await vi.waitFor(() => {
+      expect(getCheckoutRefDerivedState).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(1);
+    });
+    expect(getCheckoutSnapshotFacts).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(1);
+
+    subscription.unsubscribe();
+    service.dispose();
+  });
+
+  test("a second remote-ref move during a narrow refresh queues a final calculation", async () => {
+    const watcher = createWatcherHarness();
+    const firstRefRefresh = createDeferred<CheckoutStatusGit>();
+    const getCheckoutSnapshotFacts = vi.fn(async (cwd: string) => ({
+      ...createCheckoutFacts(cwd),
+      currentBranch: "feature",
+      remoteUrl: "https://example.com/repo.git",
+      resolvedBaseRef: "main",
+      comparisonBaseRef: "origin/main",
+    }));
+    const getCheckoutRefDerivedState = vi
+      .fn<
+        (
+          cwd: string,
+          facts: CheckoutSnapshotFacts,
+          current: CheckoutStatusGit,
+        ) => Promise<CheckoutStatusGit>
+      >()
+      .mockImplementationOnce(() => firstRefRefresh.promise)
+      .mockImplementation(async (_cwd, facts, current) => ({
+        ...current,
+        upstreamStatus: facts.upstreamStatus,
+      }));
+    const service = createService(watcher, {
+      getCheckoutSnapshotFacts,
+      getCheckoutRefDerivedState,
+      getCheckoutStatus: vi.fn(async (cwd: string) =>
+        createCheckoutStatus(cwd, {
+          currentBranch: "feature",
+          baseRef: "main",
+          hasRemote: true,
+          remoteUrl: "https://example.com/repo.git",
+        }),
+      ),
+      hasOriginRemote: vi.fn(async () => true),
+      runGitFetch: vi.fn(async () => ({
+        changes: [{ kind: "moved" as const, ref: "origin/main", beforeOid: "a", afterOid: "b" }],
+        error: null,
+      })),
+    });
+    const subscription = service.registerWorkspace({ cwd: REPO_CWD }, vi.fn());
+
+    await vi.advanceTimersByTimeAsync(1_000);
+    await vi.waitFor(() => {
+      expect(getCheckoutRefDerivedState).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(1);
+    });
+
+    watcher.records
+      .find((record) => record.directory === GIT_DIR)
+      ?.callback(null, [
+        { path: path.join(GIT_DIR, "refs", "remotes", "origin", "main"), type: "update" },
+      ]);
+    await vi.advanceTimersByTimeAsync(1_000);
+    expect(service.getMetrics().workspaceRefreshQueuedCount).toBe(1);
+
+    firstRefRefresh.resolve(createCheckoutStatus(REPO_CWD, { currentBranch: "feature" }));
+    await vi.waitFor(() => {
+      expect(getCheckoutRefDerivedState).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(2);
+      expect(service.getMetrics().workspaceRefreshInFlightCount).toBe(0);
+    });
+
+    subscription.unsubscribe();
+    service.dispose();
+  });
+
+  test("an unmatched remote-ref event buffered after the fetch snapshot is refreshed", async () => {
+    const watcher = createWatcherHarness();
+    const fetchSnapshotRead = createDeferred<void>();
+    const releaseFetch = createDeferred<void>();
+    const getCheckoutSnapshotFacts = vi.fn(async (cwd: string) => ({
+      ...createCheckoutFacts(cwd),
+      currentBranch: "feature",
+      remoteUrl: "https://example.com/repo.git",
+      resolvedBaseRef: "main",
+      comparisonBaseRef: "origin/main",
+    }));
+    const service = createService(watcher, {
+      getCheckoutSnapshotFacts,
+      getCheckoutStatus: vi.fn(async (cwd: string) =>
+        createCheckoutStatus(cwd, {
+          currentBranch: "feature",
+          baseRef: "main",
+          hasRemote: true,
+          remoteUrl: "https://example.com/repo.git",
+        }),
+      ),
+      hasOriginRemote: vi.fn(async () => true),
+      runGitFetch: vi.fn(async (_cwd, observer) => {
+        observer?.onRefSnapshot("before");
+        observer?.onRefSnapshot("after");
+        fetchSnapshotRead.resolve();
+        await releaseFetch.promise;
+        return { changes: [], nonRemoteRefsChanged: false, error: null };
+      }),
+    });
+    const subscription = service.registerWorkspace({ cwd: REPO_CWD }, vi.fn());
+    await fetchSnapshotRead.promise;
+    await vi.waitFor(() => {
+      expect(getCheckoutSnapshotFacts).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(1);
+    });
+
+    watcher.records
+      .find((record) => record.directory === GIT_DIR)
+      ?.callback(null, [
+        { path: path.join(GIT_DIR, "refs", "remotes", "origin", "main"), type: "update" },
+      ]);
+    releaseFetch.resolve();
+    await flushPromises();
+    await vi.advanceTimersByTimeAsync(1_000);
+    await vi.waitFor(() => {
+      expect(getCheckoutSnapshotFacts).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(2);
+    });
+
+    subscription.unsubscribe();
+    service.dispose();
+  });
+
+  test("origin/main refreshes a main checkout without configured upstream", async () => {
+    const watcher = createWatcherHarness();
+    const getCheckoutSnapshotFacts = vi.fn(async (cwd: string) => ({
+      ...createCheckoutFacts(cwd),
+      currentBranch: "main",
+      remoteUrl: "https://example.com/repo.git",
+      resolvedBaseRef: "main",
+      comparisonBaseRef: null,
+      branchRemoteName: null,
+      branchMergeRef: null,
+      upstreamStatus: null,
+    }));
+    const service = createService(watcher, { getCheckoutSnapshotFacts });
+    const subscription = service.registerWorkspace({ cwd: REPO_CWD }, vi.fn());
+    await vi.waitFor(() => {
+      expect(getCheckoutSnapshotFacts).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(1);
+    });
+
+    watcher.records
+      .find((record) => record.directory === GIT_DIR)
+      ?.callback(null, [
+        { path: path.join(GIT_DIR, "refs", "remotes", "origin", "main"), type: "update" },
+      ]);
+    await vi.advanceTimersByTimeAsync(1_000);
+    await vi.waitFor(() => {
+      expect(getCheckoutSnapshotFacts).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(2);
+    });
+
+    subscription.unsubscribe();
+    service.dispose();
+  });
+
   test("routes private worktree metadata to its owner and shared base refs to dependents", async () => {
     const watcher = createWatcherHarness();
     const getCheckoutSnapshotFacts = vi.fn(async (cwd: string) => createLinkedCheckoutFacts(cwd));
@@ -535,7 +974,7 @@ describe("WorkspaceGitService checkout observation", () => {
     service.dispose();
   });
 
-  test("routes a newly created remote tracking ref to its configured workspace", async () => {
+  test("a newly created remote tracking ref refreshes every repository workspace", async () => {
     const watcher = createWatcherHarness();
     const getCheckoutSnapshotFacts = vi.fn(async (cwd: string) => {
       const facts = createLinkedCheckoutFacts(cwd);
@@ -577,7 +1016,7 @@ describe("WorkspaceGitService checkout observation", () => {
       ]);
     await vi.advanceTimersByTimeAsync(1_000);
     await vi.waitFor(() => {
-      expect(getCalledCwds(getCheckoutStatus)).toEqual([WORKTREE_A]);
+      expect(getCalledCwds(getCheckoutStatus)).toEqual([WORKTREE_A, WORKTREE_B]);
     });
 
     first.unsubscribe();
@@ -831,7 +1270,10 @@ describe("WorkspaceGitService checkout observation", () => {
   test("ten worktrees share one repository metadata and fetch observer while retaining checkout state", async () => {
     const watcher = createWatcherHarness();
     const fetch = createDeferred<void>();
-    const runGitFetch = vi.fn(() => fetch.promise);
+    const runGitFetch = vi.fn(async () => {
+      await fetch.promise;
+      return { changes: [], error: null };
+    });
     const commonGitDir = path.resolve("/tmp/paseo-shared-repository.git");
     const worktrees = Array.from({ length: 10 }, (_, index) =>
       path.resolve(`/tmp/paseo-shared-worktree-${index}`),
@@ -886,7 +1328,7 @@ describe("WorkspaceGitService checkout observation", () => {
     await vi.waitFor(() => {
       expect(runGitFetch).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(2);
     });
-    expect(runGitFetch).toHaveBeenLastCalledWith(worktrees[1]);
+    expect(runGitFetch).toHaveBeenLastCalledWith(worktrees[1], expect.anything());
 
     for (const subscription of subscriptions.slice(1)) {
       subscription.unsubscribe();
diff --git a/packages/server/src/server/workspace-git-service.primitive.test.ts b/packages/server/src/server/workspace-git-service.primitive.test.ts
index f0669c2f1..180fb5416 100644
--- a/packages/server/src/server/workspace-git-service.primitive.test.ts
+++ b/packages/server/src/server/workspace-git-service.primitive.test.ts
@@ -334,6 +334,10 @@ function buildDefaultServiceDeps() {
   return {
     subscribe: vi.fn(async () => ({ unsubscribe: vi.fn(async () => {}) })),
     getCheckoutSnapshotFacts: vi.fn(async (cwd: string) => createCheckoutFacts(cwd)),
+    getCheckoutRefDerivedState: vi.fn(async (_cwd, facts, current) => ({
+      ...current,
+      upstreamStatus: facts.upstreamStatus,
+    })),
     getCheckoutStatus: vi.fn(async (cwd: string) => createCheckoutStatus(cwd)),
     getCheckoutShortstat: vi.fn(async () => ({
       additions: 1,
@@ -349,7 +353,10 @@ function buildDefaultServiceDeps() {
     forgeOverrides: { github: createGitHubServiceStub() },
     resolveAbsoluteGitDir: vi.fn(async () => join(REPO_CWD, ".git")),
     hasOriginRemote: vi.fn(async () => false),
-    runGitFetch: vi.fn(() => createDeferred<void>().promise),
+    runGitFetch: vi.fn(async () => {
+      await createDeferred<void>().promise;
+      return { changes: [], error: null };
+    }),
     runGitCommand: vi.fn(async () => ({
       stdout: `${REPO_CWD}\n`,
       stderr: "",
diff --git a/packages/server/src/server/workspace-git-service.test.ts b/packages/server/src/server/workspace-git-service.test.ts
index f7f51ad56..a83487e2f 100644
--- a/packages/server/src/server/workspace-git-service.test.ts
+++ b/packages/server/src/server/workspace-git-service.test.ts
@@ -264,6 +264,10 @@ function buildDefaultTestServiceDeps() {
   return {
     subscribe: vi.fn(async () => ({ unsubscribe: vi.fn(async () => {}) })),
     getCheckoutSnapshotFacts: vi.fn(async (cwd: string) => createCheckoutSnapshotFacts(cwd)),
+    getCheckoutRefDerivedState: vi.fn(async (_cwd, facts, current) => ({
+      ...current,
+      upstreamStatus: facts.upstreamStatus,
+    })),
     getCheckoutStatus: vi.fn(async (cwd: string) => createCheckoutStatus(cwd)),
     getCheckoutShortstat: vi.fn(async () => ({
       additions: 1,
@@ -274,7 +278,7 @@ function buildDefaultTestServiceDeps() {
     forgeOverrides: { github: createGitHubServiceStub() },
     resolveAbsoluteGitDir: vi.fn(async () => join(REPO_CWD, ".git")),
     hasOriginRemote: vi.fn(async () => false),
-    runGitFetch: vi.fn(async () => {}),
+    runGitFetch: vi.fn(async () => ({ changes: [], error: null })),
     runGitCommand: vi.fn(async () => ({
       stdout: `${REPO_CWD}\n`,
       stderr: "",
@@ -842,17 +846,28 @@ describe("WorkspaceGitServiceImpl", () => {
 
   test("repo-level fetch intervals are shared for workspaces in the same repo", async () => {
     const firstFetch = createDeferred<void>();
-    const runGitFetch = vi.fn(() => firstFetch.promise);
+    const runGitFetch = vi.fn(async () => {
+      await firstFetch.promise;
+      return {
+        changes: [{ kind: "moved" as const, ref: "origin/main", beforeOid: "a", afterOid: "b" }],
+        error: null,
+      };
+    });
     const hasOriginRemote = vi.fn(async () => true);
     const getCheckoutSnapshotFacts = vi.fn(async (cwd: string) => ({
       ...createCheckoutSnapshotFacts(cwd),
       gitCommonDir: join(REPO_CWD, ".git"),
       absoluteGitDir: join(REPO_CWD, ".git"),
     }));
+    const getCheckoutRefDerivedState = vi.fn(async (_cwd, facts, current) => ({
+      ...current,
+      upstreamStatus: facts.upstreamStatus,
+    }));
     const resolveAbsoluteGitDir = vi.fn(async () => join(REPO_CWD, ".git"));
 
     const service = createService({
       getCheckoutSnapshotFacts,
+      getCheckoutRefDerivedState,
       resolveAbsoluteGitDir,
       hasOriginRemote,
       runGitFetch,
@@ -877,7 +892,8 @@ describe("WorkspaceGitServiceImpl", () => {
     await flushPromises();
     await vi.advanceTimersByTimeAsync(1_000);
     await vi.waitFor(() => {
-      expect(getCheckoutSnapshotFacts).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(4);
+      expect(getCheckoutSnapshotFacts).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(2);
+      expect(getCheckoutRefDerivedState).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(2);
     });
 
     await vi.advanceTimersByTimeAsync(180_000);
@@ -890,6 +906,165 @@ describe("WorkspaceGitServiceImpl", () => {
     service.dispose();
   });
 
+  test("remote ref name drift outside the fetch interval takes the structural fallback", async () => {
+    const runGitFetch = vi
+      .fn()
+      .mockResolvedValueOnce({
+        changes: [],
+        nonRemoteRefsChanged: false,
+        remoteRefs: new Set(["origin/main"]),
+        error: null,
+      })
+      .mockResolvedValueOnce({
+        changes: [],
+        nonRemoteRefsChanged: false,
+        remoteRefs: new Set(["origin/main", "origin/new"]),
+        error: null,
+      });
+    const getCheckoutSnapshotFacts = vi.fn(async (cwd: string) => ({
+      ...createCheckoutSnapshotFacts(cwd),
+      gitCommonDir: join(REPO_CWD, ".git"),
+      absoluteGitDir: join(REPO_CWD, ".git"),
+    }));
+    const service = createService({
+      getCheckoutSnapshotFacts,
+      resolveAbsoluteGitDir: vi.fn(async () => join(REPO_CWD, ".git")),
+      hasOriginRemote: vi.fn(async () => true),
+      runGitFetch,
+    });
+    const first = service.registerWorkspace({ cwd: REPO_CWD }, vi.fn());
+    const second = service.registerWorkspace(
+      { cwd: join(REPO_CWD, "packages", "server") },
+      vi.fn(),
+    );
+    await vi.waitFor(() => {
+      expect(runGitFetch).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(1);
+      expect(service.getMetrics().fetchInFlightCount).toBe(0);
+      expect(getCheckoutSnapshotFacts).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(2);
+    });
+    getCheckoutSnapshotFacts.mockClear();
+
+    await vi.advanceTimersByTimeAsync(180_000);
+    await vi.waitFor(() => {
+      expect(runGitFetch).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(2);
+    });
+    await vi.advanceTimersByTimeAsync(1_000);
+    await vi.waitFor(() => {
+      expect(getCheckoutSnapshotFacts).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(2);
+    });
+
+    first.unsubscribe();
+    second.unsubscribe();
+    service.dispose();
+  });
+
+  test.each([
+    {
+      name: "an added remote ref",
+      result: {
+        changes: [{ kind: "added" as const, ref: "origin/new", afterOid: "b" }],
+        error: null,
+      },
+    },
+    {
+      name: "a deleted remote ref",
+      result: {
+        changes: [{ kind: "deleted" as const, ref: "origin/main", beforeOid: "a" }],
+        error: null,
+      },
+    },
+    {
+      name: "a concurrent local ref change",
+      result: { changes: [], nonRemoteRefsChanged: true, error: null },
+    },
+  ])("$name takes the repository-wide structural fallback", async ({ result }) => {
+    const releaseFetch = createDeferred<void>();
+    const getCheckoutSnapshotFacts = vi.fn(async (cwd: string) => ({
+      ...createCheckoutSnapshotFacts(cwd),
+      gitCommonDir: join(REPO_CWD, ".git"),
+      absoluteGitDir: join(REPO_CWD, ".git"),
+    }));
+    const getCheckoutRefDerivedState = vi.fn();
+    const service = createService({
+      getCheckoutSnapshotFacts,
+      getCheckoutRefDerivedState,
+      resolveAbsoluteGitDir: vi.fn(async () => join(REPO_CWD, ".git")),
+      hasOriginRemote: vi.fn(async () => true),
+      runGitFetch: vi.fn(async () => {
+        await releaseFetch.promise;
+        return result;
+      }),
+    });
+    const first = service.registerWorkspace({ cwd: REPO_CWD }, vi.fn());
+    const second = service.registerWorkspace(
+      { cwd: join(REPO_CWD, "packages", "server") },
+      vi.fn(),
+    );
+    await vi.waitFor(() => {
+      expect(getCheckoutSnapshotFacts).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(2);
+    });
+
+    releaseFetch.resolve();
+    await flushPromises();
+    await vi.advanceTimersByTimeAsync(1_000);
+    await vi.waitFor(() => {
+      expect(getCheckoutSnapshotFacts).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(4);
+    });
+    expect(getCheckoutRefDerivedState).not.toHaveBeenCalled();
+
+    first.unsubscribe();
+    second.unsubscribe();
+    service.dispose();
+  });
+
+  test("a failed narrow remote-ref refresh falls back for that workspace", async () => {
+    const releaseFetch = createDeferred<void>();
+    const getCheckoutShortstat = vi
+      .fn()
+      .mockResolvedValueOnce({ additions: 1, deletions: 0 })
+      .mockResolvedValue({ additions: 2, deletions: 0 });
+    const getCheckoutSnapshotFacts = vi.fn(async (cwd: string) => ({
+      ...createCheckoutSnapshotFacts(cwd),
+      gitCommonDir: join(REPO_CWD, ".git"),
+      absoluteGitDir: join(REPO_CWD, ".git"),
+    }));
+    const getCheckoutRefDerivedState = vi.fn(async () => {
+      throw new Error("ref moved again");
+    });
+    const service = createService({
+      getCheckoutSnapshotFacts,
+      getCheckoutRefDerivedState,
+      getCheckoutShortstat,
+      resolveAbsoluteGitDir: vi.fn(async () => join(REPO_CWD, ".git")),
+      hasOriginRemote: vi.fn(async () => true),
+      runGitFetch: vi.fn(async () => {
+        await releaseFetch.promise;
+        return {
+          changes: [{ kind: "moved" as const, ref: "origin/main", beforeOid: "a", afterOid: "b" }],
+          error: null,
+        };
+      }),
+    });
+    const listener = vi.fn();
+    const subscription = service.registerWorkspace({ cwd: REPO_CWD }, listener);
+    await vi.waitFor(() => {
+      expect(getCheckoutSnapshotFacts).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(1);
+    });
+
+    releaseFetch.resolve();
+    await flushPromises();
+    await vi.advanceTimersByTimeAsync(1_000);
+    await vi.waitFor(() => {
+      expect(getCheckoutRefDerivedState).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(1);
+      expect(getCheckoutSnapshotFacts).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(2);
+      expect(getCheckoutShortstat).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(2);
+    });
+    expect(listener.mock.lastCall?.[0].git.diffStat).toEqual({ additions: 2, deletions: 0 });
+
+    subscription.unsubscribe();
+    service.dispose();
+  });
+
   test("explicit forced snapshot refresh recomputes github state and notifies listeners", async () => {
     const getPullRequestStatus = vi
       .fn<() => Promise<PullRequestStatusResult>>()
@@ -1180,7 +1355,10 @@ describe("WorkspaceGitServiceImpl", () => {
     const backgroundFetch = createDeferred<void>();
     const service = createService({
       getCheckoutWorktreeState,
-      runGitFetch: vi.fn(() => backgroundFetch.promise),
+      runGitFetch: vi.fn(async () => {
+        await backgroundFetch.promise;
+        return { changes: [], error: null };
+      }),
       subscribe,
     });
     const workspaceListener = vi.fn();
diff --git a/packages/server/src/server/workspace-git-service.ts b/packages/server/src/server/workspace-git-service.ts
index 01909810d..917811c70 100644
--- a/packages/server/src/server/workspace-git-service.ts
+++ b/packages/server/src/server/workspace-git-service.ts
@@ -15,6 +15,7 @@ import {
   type CheckoutDiffCompare,
   type CheckoutDiffResult,
   getCheckoutDiff,
+  getCheckoutRefDerivedState,
   getCheckoutSnapshotFacts,
   getCheckoutShortstat,
   getCheckoutStatus,
@@ -46,14 +47,22 @@ import {
   isRealpathInsideRoot,
 } from "../utils/path.js";
 import { runGitCommand } from "../utils/run-git-command.js";
+import { branchNameFromRef } from "../utils/worktree-metadata.js";
 import { listPaseoWorktrees, type PaseoWorktreeInfo } from "../utils/worktree.js";
 import { READ_ONLY_GIT_ENV } from "./checkout-git-utils.js";
 import { classifyGitMetadataPath, getPrunedGitMetadataPaths } from "./git-metadata-event-rules.js";
+import {
+  fetchWorkspaceGitRemote,
+  type WorkspaceGitFetchResult,
+  type WorkspaceGitFetchObserver,
+  type WorkspaceGitRemoteRefChange,
+} from "./workspace-git-fetch.js";
 import { deriveProjectSlug } from "./workspace-git-metadata.js";
 import { checkoutLiteFromGitSnapshot } from "./workspace-registry-model.js";
 
 const WORKSPACE_GIT_WATCH_DEBOUNCE_MS = 1_000;
 const BACKGROUND_GIT_FETCH_INTERVAL_MS = 180_000;
+const FETCH_METADATA_ECHO_TTL_MS = 5_000;
 export const WORKSPACE_GIT_SELF_HEAL_INTERVAL_MS = 60_000;
 const FORGE_PR_STATUS_POLL_FAST_INTERVAL_MS = 20_000;
 const FORGE_PR_STATUS_POLL_SLOW_INTERVAL_MS = 120_000;
@@ -75,6 +84,21 @@ const WORKSPACE_GIT_CHECKOUT_DIFF_CACHE_MAX = 64;
 // Small values (booleans, short strings, small arrays); generous cap.
 const WORKSPACE_GIT_AUXILIARY_CACHE_MAX = 256;
 
+function mergeSets<T>(
+  left: ReadonlySet<T>,
+  right: ReadonlySet<T>,
+): { merged: Set<T>; added: boolean } {
+  const merged = new Set(left);
+  let added = false;
+  for (const value of right) {
+    if (!merged.has(value)) {
+      merged.add(value);
+      added = true;
+    }
+  }
+  return { merged, added };
+}
+
 export function getWorkspaceGitSelfHealPhaseMs(cwd: string): number {
   return (
     createHash("sha256").update(cwd).digest().readUInt32BE(0) % WORKSPACE_GIT_SELF_HEAL_INTERVAL_MS
@@ -269,15 +293,17 @@ interface WorkspaceGitRefreshRequest {
   reason: string;
   notify: boolean;
   queueIfBusy: boolean;
+  movedRemoteRefs: Set<string>;
 }
 
 interface ScheduledWorkspaceGitRefreshOptions {
   force?: boolean;
-  scope?: "structure" | "worktree";
+  scope?: "refs" | "structure" | "worktree";
   includeForge?: boolean;
   emitUnchanged?: boolean;
   reason?: string;
   queueIfBusy?: boolean;
+  movedRemoteRefs?: ReadonlySet<string>;
 }
 
 type WorkspaceGitRefreshState =
@@ -294,6 +320,7 @@ type WorkspaceGitRefreshState =
 interface WorkspaceGitServiceDependencies {
   subscribe: typeof parcelWatcher.subscribe;
   getCheckoutSnapshotFacts: typeof getCheckoutSnapshotFacts;
+  getCheckoutRefDerivedState: typeof getCheckoutRefDerivedState;
   getCheckoutStatus: typeof getCheckoutStatus;
   getCheckoutShortstat: typeof getCheckoutShortstat;
   getCheckoutWorktreeState: typeof getCheckoutWorktreeState;
@@ -311,7 +338,10 @@ interface WorkspaceGitServiceDependencies {
   forgeOverrides?: Record<string, ForgeService>;
   resolveAbsoluteGitDir: (cwd: string) => Promise<string | null>;
   hasOriginRemote: (cwd: string) => Promise<boolean>;
-  runGitFetch: (cwd: string) => Promise<void>;
+  runGitFetch: (
+    cwd: string,
+    observer: WorkspaceGitFetchObserver,
+  ) => Promise<WorkspaceGitFetchResult>;
   runGitCommand: typeof runGitCommand;
   getWorkspaceGitSelfHealPhaseMs: typeof getWorkspaceGitSelfHealPhaseMs;
   now: () => Date;
@@ -405,11 +435,20 @@ interface RepoGitTarget {
   recovery: WatchRecoveryState;
   intervalId: NodeJS.Timeout | null;
   fetchInFlight: boolean;
+  bufferedFetchMetadataEvents: parcelWatcher.Event[];
+  recentFetchRemoteRefChanges: Map<
+    string,
+    { change: WorkspaceGitRemoteRefChange; expiresAtMs: number }
+  >;
+  knownRemoteRefs: Set<string> | null;
   closed: boolean;
 }
 
 interface RepoMetadataWorkspaceRefresh {
   refreshBase: boolean;
+  structural: boolean;
+  movedRemoteRefs: Set<string>;
+  queueIfBusy: boolean;
 }
 
 interface WorkingTreeWatchTarget {
@@ -433,6 +472,10 @@ interface WatchRecoveryState {
   timer: NodeJS.Timeout | null;
 }
 
+function setsEqual(left: ReadonlySet<string>, right: ReadonlySet<string>): boolean {
+  return left.size === right.size && [...left].every((value) => right.has(value));
+}
+
 type WorkingTreeWatchFallbackReason =
   | "not_a_git_checkout"
   | "watcher_error"
@@ -456,6 +499,7 @@ function buildDefaultWorkspaceGitServiceDeps(): WorkspaceGitServiceDependencies
   return {
     subscribe: subscribeToWorkspaceFileChanges,
     getCheckoutSnapshotFacts,
+    getCheckoutRefDerivedState,
     getCheckoutStatus,
     getCheckoutShortstat,
     getCheckoutWorktreeState,
@@ -467,7 +511,7 @@ function buildDefaultWorkspaceGitServiceDeps(): WorkspaceGitServiceDependencies
     listPaseoWorktrees,
     resolveAbsoluteGitDir,
     hasOriginRemote,
-    runGitFetch,
+    runGitFetch: fetchWorkspaceGitRemote,
     runGitCommand,
     getWorkspaceGitSelfHealPhaseMs,
     now: () => new Date(),
@@ -863,6 +907,7 @@ export class WorkspaceGitServiceImpl implements WorkspaceGitService {
       reason: "refresh",
       notify: true,
       queueIfBusy: false,
+      movedRemoteRefs: new Set(),
     });
     this.scheduleWorkspaceObservationSetup(target);
   }
@@ -1130,6 +1175,7 @@ export class WorkspaceGitServiceImpl implements WorkspaceGitService {
         reason: "initial",
         notify: true,
         queueIfBusy: false,
+        movedRemoteRefs: new Set(),
       });
     });
   }
@@ -1475,6 +1521,7 @@ export class WorkspaceGitServiceImpl implements WorkspaceGitService {
             reason: "working-tree-watch-fallback",
             notify: true,
             queueIfBusy: true,
+            movedRemoteRefs: new Set(),
           });
           if (target.repoRoot === null && workspaceTarget.latestGit?.isGit === true) {
             workspaceTarget.observationSetupComplete = false;
@@ -1741,6 +1788,9 @@ export class WorkspaceGitServiceImpl implements WorkspaceGitService {
       recovery: { attemptCount: 0, timer: null },
       intervalId: null,
       fetchInFlight: false,
+      bufferedFetchMetadataEvents: [],
+      recentFetchRemoteRefChanges: new Map(),
+      knownRemoteRefs: null,
       closed: false,
     };
     this.repoTargets.set(repoGitRoot, repoTarget);
@@ -1821,12 +1871,24 @@ export class WorkspaceGitServiceImpl implements WorkspaceGitService {
               ignore.every((ignoredPath) => !isRealpathInsideRoot(ignoredPath, event.path)),
           );
           if (relevantEvents.length > 0) {
-            this.scheduleRepoMetadataRefresh(
-              target,
-              "git-metadata-watch",
-              true,
-              this.routeRepoMetadataEvents(target, relevantEvents),
-            );
+            const immediateEvents = target.fetchInFlight
+              ? relevantEvents.filter((event) => {
+                  if (this.isFetchRemoteMetadataEvent(target, event)) {
+                    target.bufferedFetchMetadataEvents.push(event);
+                    return false;
+                  }
+                  return true;
+                })
+              : relevantEvents;
+            if (immediateEvents.length > 0) {
+              const routedRefreshes = this.routeRepoMetadataEvents(target, immediateEvents);
+              this.scheduleRepoMetadataRefresh(
+                target,
+                "git-metadata-watch",
+                routedRefreshes === null || [...routedRefreshes.values()].some((r) => r.structural),
+                routedRefreshes,
+              );
+            }
           }
         },
         { ignore },
@@ -1922,6 +1984,16 @@ export class WorkspaceGitServiceImpl implements WorkspaceGitService {
     return refreshes;
   }
 
+  private isFetchRemoteMetadataEvent(target: RepoGitTarget, event: parcelWatcher.Event): boolean {
+    const relativePath = getRealpathAwareRelativePath(target.repoGitRoot, event.path);
+    const effect = classifyGitMetadataPath("common", relativePath ?? "");
+    return (
+      (effect.kind === "ref" && effect.namespace === "remote") ||
+      (effect.kind === "all" &&
+        (relativePath === "packed-refs" || relativePath?.startsWith("reftable/") === true))
+    );
+  }
+
   private routeRepoMetadataEvent(
     target: RepoGitTarget,
     event: parcelWatcher.Event,
@@ -1942,10 +2014,39 @@ export class WorkspaceGitServiceImpl implements WorkspaceGitService {
         if (effect.namespace === "local") {
           this.routeLocalBranchRef(target, effect.ref, refreshes);
         } else {
-          this.routeRemoteBranchRef(target, effect.ref, refreshes);
+          if (event.type === "delete") {
+            target.recentFetchRemoteRefChanges.delete(effect.ref);
+            target.knownRemoteRefs = null;
+            return false;
+          }
+          const recent = target.recentFetchRemoteRefChanges.get(effect.ref);
+          if (recent && recent.expiresAtMs >= this.deps.now().getTime()) {
+            this.routeRemoteBranchRef(target, effect.ref, refreshes, {
+              narrow: recent.change.kind === "moved",
+            });
+          } else {
+            target.recentFetchRemoteRefChanges.delete(effect.ref);
+            if (target.knownRemoteRefs?.has(effect.ref)) {
+              this.routeRemoteBranchRef(target, effect.ref, refreshes, { narrow: true });
+            } else if (
+              event.type === "create" &&
+              target.knownRemoteRefs &&
+              [...target.knownRemoteRefs].some((ref) => ref.startsWith(`${effect.ref}/`))
+            ) {
+              return true;
+            } else {
+              return false;
+            }
+          }
         }
         return true;
       case "all":
+        if (
+          commonRelativePath === "packed-refs" ||
+          commonRelativePath?.startsWith("reftable/") === true
+        ) {
+          target.knownRemoteRefs = null;
+        }
         return false;
     }
   }
@@ -2016,6 +2117,7 @@ export class WorkspaceGitServiceImpl implements WorkspaceGitService {
     target: RepoGitTarget,
     remoteRef: string,
     refreshes: Map<string, RepoMetadataWorkspaceRefresh>,
+    options?: { narrow?: boolean; queueIfBusy?: boolean },
   ): void {
     const qualifiedRemoteRef = `refs/remotes/${remoteRef}`;
     for (const workspaceKey of target.workspaceKeys) {
@@ -2028,16 +2130,26 @@ export class WorkspaceGitServiceImpl implements WorkspaceGitService {
         facts.branchRemoteName && facts.branchRemoteName !== "." && trackedBranch
           ? `${facts.branchRemoteName}/${trackedBranch}`
           : null;
+      const shortstatRemoteRef =
+        facts.currentBranch &&
+        (!facts.resolvedBaseRef || branchNameFromRef(facts.resolvedBaseRef) === facts.currentBranch)
+          ? `origin/${facts.currentBranch}`
+          : null;
       const refs = [
         facts.storedBaseRef,
         facts.resolvedBaseRef,
         facts.comparisonBaseRef,
         facts.upstreamStatus?.ref,
         configuredRemoteRef,
+        shortstatRemoteRef,
       ];
       const usesRemoteRef = refs.some((ref) => ref === remoteRef || ref === qualifiedRemoteRef);
       if (usesRemoteRef) {
-        this.addWorkspaceMetadataRefresh(refreshes, workspaceKey, true);
+        this.addWorkspaceMetadataRefresh(refreshes, workspaceKey, true, {
+          structural: options?.narrow !== true,
+          movedRemoteRef: options?.narrow === true ? remoteRef : undefined,
+          queueIfBusy: options?.queueIfBusy,
+        });
       }
     }
   }
@@ -2046,10 +2158,22 @@ export class WorkspaceGitServiceImpl implements WorkspaceGitService {
     refreshes: Map<string, RepoMetadataWorkspaceRefresh>,
     workspaceKey: string,
     refreshBase: boolean,
+    options?: {
+      structural?: boolean;
+      movedRemoteRef?: string;
+      queueIfBusy?: boolean;
+    },
   ): void {
     const previous = refreshes.get(workspaceKey);
+    const movedRemoteRefs = new Set(previous?.movedRemoteRefs);
+    if (options?.movedRemoteRef) {
+      movedRemoteRefs.add(options.movedRemoteRef);
+    }
     refreshes.set(workspaceKey, {
       refreshBase: previous?.refreshBase === true || refreshBase,
+      structural: previous?.structural === true || options?.structural !== false,
+      movedRemoteRefs,
+      queueIfBusy: (previous?.queueIfBusy ?? false) || (options?.queueIfBusy ?? true),
     });
   }
 
@@ -2066,11 +2190,23 @@ export class WorkspaceGitServiceImpl implements WorkspaceGitService {
     const refreshes =
       routedRefreshes ??
       new Map(
-        Array.from(target.workspaceKeys, (workspaceKey) => [workspaceKey, { refreshBase: true }]),
+        Array.from(target.workspaceKeys, (workspaceKey) => [
+          workspaceKey,
+          {
+            refreshBase: true,
+            structural: true,
+            movedRemoteRefs: new Set<string>(),
+            queueIfBusy: true,
+          },
+        ]),
       );
     for (const [workspaceKey, refresh] of refreshes) {
       const workspaceTarget = this.workspaceTargets.get(workspaceKey);
       if (workspaceTarget) {
+        let scope: ScheduledWorkspaceGitRefreshOptions["scope"];
+        if (!refreshWorktree) {
+          scope = refresh.structural ? "structure" : "refs";
+        }
         if (refresh.refreshBase) {
           this.invalidateCheckoutDiffCache(workspaceTarget.cwd, "base");
           if (workspaceTarget.latestFacts?.isGit) {
@@ -2084,9 +2220,11 @@ export class WorkspaceGitServiceImpl implements WorkspaceGitService {
           }
         }
         this.scheduleWorkspaceRefresh(workspaceTarget, {
-          scope: refreshWorktree ? undefined : "structure",
+          scope,
           emitUnchanged: refresh.refreshBase,
           reason,
+          queueIfBusy: refresh.queueIfBusy,
+          movedRemoteRefs: refresh.movedRemoteRefs,
         });
       }
     }
@@ -2129,6 +2267,7 @@ export class WorkspaceGitServiceImpl implements WorkspaceGitService {
             reason: "git-metadata-watch-fallback",
             notify: true,
             queueIfBusy: true,
+            movedRemoteRefs: new Set(),
           });
         }),
       );
@@ -2221,6 +2360,7 @@ export class WorkspaceGitServiceImpl implements WorkspaceGitService {
           reason: "self-heal-git",
           notify: true,
           queueIfBusy: true,
+          movedRemoteRefs: new Set(),
         }).catch((error) => {
           this.logger.warn(
             { err: error, cwd: target.cwd, reason: "self-heal-git" },
@@ -2488,7 +2628,8 @@ export class WorkspaceGitServiceImpl implements WorkspaceGitService {
         (request.refreshStructure && !active.refreshStructure) ||
         (request.refreshWorktree && !active.refreshWorktree) ||
         (request.includeForge && !active.includeForge) ||
-        (request.emitUnchanged === true && active.emitUnchanged !== true);
+        (request.emitUnchanged === true && active.emitUnchanged !== true) ||
+        [...request.movedRemoteRefs].some((ref) => !active.movedRemoteRefs.has(ref));
       if (request.queueIfBusy || addsWork) {
         target.refreshState.queued = this.mergeRefreshRequests(target.refreshState.queued, request);
       }
@@ -2533,6 +2674,7 @@ export class WorkspaceGitServiceImpl implements WorkspaceGitService {
       reason: options?.reason ?? defaultReason,
       notify,
       queueIfBusy: false,
+      movedRemoteRefs: new Set(),
     };
   }
 
@@ -2554,13 +2696,14 @@ export class WorkspaceGitServiceImpl implements WorkspaceGitService {
     const scope = options?.scope;
     return {
       force: options?.force === true,
-      refreshStructure: scope !== "worktree",
-      refreshWorktree: scope !== "structure",
+      refreshStructure: scope !== "worktree" && scope !== "refs",
+      refreshWorktree: scope !== "structure" && scope !== "refs",
       includeForge: options?.includeForge ?? false,
       emitUnchanged: options?.emitUnchanged,
       reason: options?.reason ?? "watch",
       notify: true,
       queueIfBusy: options?.queueIfBusy ?? true,
+      movedRemoteRefs: new Set(options?.movedRemoteRefs),
     };
   }
 
@@ -2578,6 +2721,10 @@ export class WorkspaceGitServiceImpl implements WorkspaceGitService {
     const upgradesWorktree = request.refreshWorktree && !pending.refreshWorktree;
     const upgradesForge = request.includeForge && !pending.includeForge;
     const upgradesEmit = request.emitUnchanged === true && pending.emitUnchanged !== true;
+    const { merged: movedRemoteRefs, added: upgradesMovedRefs } = mergeSets(
+      pending.movedRemoteRefs,
+      request.movedRemoteRefs,
+    );
     return {
       force,
       refreshStructure: pending.refreshStructure || request.refreshStructure,
@@ -2585,11 +2732,17 @@ export class WorkspaceGitServiceImpl implements WorkspaceGitService {
       includeForge: pending.includeForge || request.includeForge,
       emitUnchanged: pending.emitUnchanged === true || request.emitUnchanged === true,
       reason:
-        upgradesForce || upgradesStructure || upgradesWorktree || upgradesForge || upgradesEmit
+        upgradesForce ||
+        upgradesStructure ||
+        upgradesWorktree ||
+        upgradesForge ||
+        upgradesEmit ||
+        upgradesMovedRefs
           ? request.reason
           : pending.reason,
       notify: pending.notify || request.notify,
       queueIfBusy: pending.queueIfBusy || request.queueIfBusy,
+      movedRemoteRefs,
     };
   }
 
@@ -2602,7 +2755,11 @@ export class WorkspaceGitServiceImpl implements WorkspaceGitService {
     let failure: { error: unknown } | null = null;
 
     while (true) {
-      if (request.emitUnchanged === true && target.latestSnapshot) {
+      if (
+        request.emitUnchanged === true &&
+        request.movedRemoteRefs.size === 0 &&
+        target.latestSnapshot
+      ) {
         this.rememberSnapshot(target, target.latestSnapshot, {
           notify: request.notify,
           forceEmit: true,
@@ -2621,7 +2778,8 @@ export class WorkspaceGitServiceImpl implements WorkspaceGitService {
         snapshot = admittedSnapshot;
         this.rememberSnapshot(target, snapshot, {
           notify: request.notify,
-          forceEmit: request.force,
+          forceEmit:
+            request.force || (request.emitUnchanged === true && request.movedRemoteRefs.size > 0),
         });
         failure = null;
       } catch (error) {
@@ -2653,6 +2811,25 @@ export class WorkspaceGitServiceImpl implements WorkspaceGitService {
     request: WorkspaceGitRefreshRequest,
   ): Promise<WorkspaceGitRuntimeSnapshot> {
     let facts = target.latestFacts;
+    if (request.movedRemoteRefs.size > 0 && !request.refreshStructure && !request.refreshWorktree) {
+      if (facts?.isGit && target.latestGit?.isGit) {
+        try {
+          await this.refreshRefDerivedSnapshot(target, facts, request.movedRemoteRefs);
+          return this.combineSnapshot(target);
+        } catch (error) {
+          this.logger.debug(
+            { err: error, cwd: target.cwd, movedRemoteRefs: [...request.movedRemoteRefs] },
+            "Narrow remote ref refresh failed; using structural refresh",
+          );
+        }
+      }
+      facts = await this.refreshGitSnapshot(target, {
+        ...request,
+        refreshStructure: true,
+        refreshWorktree: true,
+      });
+      return this.combineSnapshot(target);
+    }
     if (request.refreshStructure || !facts || !target.latestGit) {
       facts = await this.refreshGitSnapshot(target, request);
     } else if (request.refreshWorktree) {
@@ -2670,6 +2847,36 @@ export class WorkspaceGitServiceImpl implements WorkspaceGitService {
     return snapshot;
   }
 
+  private async refreshRefDerivedSnapshot(
+    target: WorkspaceGitTarget,
+    facts: Extract<CheckoutSnapshotFacts, { isGit: true }>,
+    movedRemoteRefs: ReadonlySet<string>,
+  ): Promise<void> {
+    const latestGit = target.latestGit;
+    if (!latestGit?.isGit) {
+      throw new Error("Remote ref refresh requires a warmed Git snapshot");
+    }
+    target.lastShellOutAtMs = this.deps.now().getTime();
+    const derived = await this.deps.getCheckoutRefDerivedState(
+      target.cwd,
+      facts,
+      { aheadBehind: latestGit.aheadBehind, diffStat: latestGit.diffStat },
+      movedRemoteRefs,
+      { paseoHome: this.paseoHome, worktreesRoot: this.worktreesRoot, logger: this.logger, facts },
+    );
+    target.latestFacts = { ...facts, upstreamStatus: derived.upstreamStatus };
+    target.latestGit = {
+      ...latestGit,
+      aheadBehind: derived.aheadBehind,
+      diffStat: derived.diffStat,
+      upstreamRef: derived.upstreamStatus?.ref ?? null,
+      aheadOfOrigin: derived.upstreamStatus?.aheadBehind.ahead ?? null,
+      behindOfOrigin: derived.upstreamStatus?.aheadBehind.behind ?? null,
+    };
+    const loadedAtMs = this.deps.now().getTime();
+    target.latestGitLoadedAtMs = loadedAtMs;
+  }
+
   private async refreshWorktreeSnapshot(
     target: WorkspaceGitTarget,
     facts: CheckoutSnapshotFacts,
@@ -2899,10 +3106,17 @@ export class WorkspaceGitServiceImpl implements WorkspaceGitService {
       "Running background git fetch",
     );
 
-    let succeeded = false;
+    let result: WorkspaceGitFetchResult | null = null;
+    const eventsBeforeFetchSnapshot: parcelWatcher.Event[] = [];
     try {
-      await this.deps.runGitFetch(target.cwd);
-      succeeded = true;
+      result = await this.deps.runGitFetch(target.cwd, {
+        onRefSnapshot: (phase) => {
+          const events = target.bufferedFetchMetadataEvents.splice(0);
+          if (phase === "before") {
+            eventsBeforeFetchSnapshot.push(...events);
+          }
+        },
+      });
     } catch (error) {
       this.logger.warn(
         { err: error, repoGitRoot: target.repoGitRoot, cwd: target.cwd },
@@ -2911,10 +3125,73 @@ export class WorkspaceGitServiceImpl implements WorkspaceGitService {
     } finally {
       target.fetchInFlight = false;
     }
-    if (!succeeded) {
+    this.flushFetchMetadataEvents(target, eventsBeforeFetchSnapshot);
+    if (!result || result.changes === null) {
+      target.recentFetchRemoteRefChanges.clear();
+      target.knownRemoteRefs = null;
+      this.flushBufferedFetchMetadataEvents(target);
+      if (result) {
+        this.logger.warn(
+          { err: result.error, repoGitRoot: target.repoGitRoot, cwd: target.cwd },
+          "Background git fetch ref classification failed; using structural refresh",
+        );
+      }
+      this.scheduleRepoMetadataRefresh(target, "repo-fetch-unclassified", false);
       return;
     }
-    this.scheduleRepoMetadataRefresh(target, "repo-fetch", false);
+    if (result.error) {
+      this.logger.warn(
+        { err: result.error, repoGitRoot: target.repoGitRoot, cwd: target.cwd },
+        "Background git fetch completed with errors after changing refs",
+      );
+    }
+    const expiresAtMs = this.deps.now().getTime() + FETCH_METADATA_ECHO_TTL_MS;
+    const remoteRefShapeChanged =
+      target.knownRemoteRefs !== null &&
+      result.remoteRefs !== undefined &&
+      !setsEqual(target.knownRemoteRefs, result.remoteRefs);
+    if (result.remoteRefs) {
+      target.knownRemoteRefs = new Set(result.remoteRefs);
+    }
+    target.recentFetchRemoteRefChanges.clear();
+    for (const change of result.changes) {
+      target.recentFetchRemoteRefChanges.set(change.ref, { change, expiresAtMs });
+    }
+    this.flushBufferedFetchMetadataEvents(target);
+    if (
+      result.nonRemoteRefsChanged === true ||
+      remoteRefShapeChanged ||
+      result.changes.some((change) => change.kind !== "moved")
+    ) {
+      this.scheduleRepoMetadataRefresh(target, "repo-fetch-ref-shape", false);
+      return;
+    }
+    if (result.changes.length === 0) {
+      return;
+    }
+    const refreshes = new Map<string, RepoMetadataWorkspaceRefresh>();
+    for (const change of result.changes) {
+      this.routeRemoteBranchRef(target, change.ref, refreshes, { narrow: true });
+    }
+    this.scheduleRepoMetadataRefresh(target, "repo-fetch", false, refreshes);
+  }
+
+  private flushBufferedFetchMetadataEvents(target: RepoGitTarget): void {
+    this.flushFetchMetadataEvents(target, target.bufferedFetchMetadataEvents.splice(0));
+  }
+
+  private flushFetchMetadataEvents(target: RepoGitTarget, events: parcelWatcher.Event[]): void {
+    if (events.length === 0) {
+      return;
+    }
+    const routedRefreshes = this.routeRepoMetadataEvents(target, events);
+    this.scheduleRepoMetadataRefresh(
+      target,
+      "git-metadata-watch-after-fetch",
+      routedRefreshes === null ||
+        [...routedRefreshes.values()].some((refresh) => refresh.structural),
+      routedRefreshes,
+    );
   }
 
   private removeWorkspaceListener(cwd: string, listener: WorkspaceGitListener): void {
@@ -3250,11 +3527,3 @@ function computeGenericForgeNextInterval(
     FORGE_PR_STATUS_POLL_ERROR_BACKOFF_CAP_MS,
   );
 }
-
-async function runGitFetch(cwd: string): Promise<void> {
-  await runGitCommand(["fetch", "origin", "--prune"], {
-    cwd,
-    envOverlay: { GIT_TERMINAL_PROMPT: "0" },
-    timeout: 120_000,
-  });
-}
diff --git a/packages/server/src/utils/checkout-git-ref-derived.test.ts b/packages/server/src/utils/checkout-git-ref-derived.test.ts
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..ddafaab6b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/packages/server/src/utils/checkout-git-ref-derived.test.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,185 @@
+import { execFileSync } from "node:child_process";
+import { mkdtempSync, rmSync, writeFileSync } from "node:fs";
+import { tmpdir } from "node:os";
+import { join } from "node:path";
+
+import { afterEach, expect, test } from "vitest";
+import { type CheckoutSnapshotFacts, getCheckoutRefDerivedState } from "./checkout-git.js";
+import {
+  startGitCommandMetrics,
+  stopGitCommandMetrics,
+  waitForGitCommandMetricsIdle,
+} from "./run-git-command.js";
+
+const cleanupPaths: string[] = [];
+
+afterEach(() => {
+  for (const path of cleanupPaths.splice(0)) {
+    rmSync(path, { recursive: true, force: true });
+  }
+});
+
+function git(cwd: string, args: string[]): string {
+  return execFileSync("git", args, {
+    cwd,
+    encoding: "utf8",
+    env: { ...process.env, GIT_CONFIG_NOSYSTEM: "1" },
+  }).trim();
+}
+
+function seedFeatureCheckout(): {
+  cwd: string;
+  facts: Extract<CheckoutSnapshotFacts, { isGit: true }>;
+} {
+  const cwd = mkdtempSync(join(tmpdir(), "paseo-ref-derived-"));
+  cleanupPaths.push(cwd);
+  git(cwd, ["init", "-b", "main"]);
+  git(cwd, ["config", "user.email", "repro@example.com"]);
+  git(cwd, ["config", "user.name", "Repro"]);
+  writeFileSync(join(cwd, "base.txt"), "base\n");
+  git(cwd, ["add", "base.txt"]);
+  git(cwd, ["commit", "-m", "base"]);
+  const base = git(cwd, ["rev-parse", "HEAD"]);
+  git(cwd, ["update-ref", "refs/remotes/origin/main", base]);
+  git(cwd, ["switch", "--quiet", "-c", "feature"]);
+  writeFileSync(join(cwd, "feature.txt"), "feature\n");
+  git(cwd, ["add", "feature.txt"]);
+  git(cwd, ["commit", "-m", "feature"]);
+
+  return {
+    cwd,
+    facts: {
+      isGit: true,
+      worktreeRoot: cwd,
+      currentBranch: "feature",
+      remoteUrl: "https://example.com/repo.git",
+      absoluteGitDir: join(cwd, ".git"),
+      gitCommonDir: join(cwd, ".git"),
+      paseoWorktree: { isPaseoOwnedWorktree: false },
+      storedBaseRef: null,
+      resolvedBaseRef: "main",
+      mainRepoRoot: null,
+      comparisonBaseRef: "origin/main",
+      branchRemoteName: "origin",
+      branchMergeRef: "refs/heads/main",
+      upstreamStatus: {
+        ref: "refs/remotes/origin/main",
+        aheadBehind: { ahead: 0, behind: 0 },
+      },
+      pullRequestLookupTarget: { headRef: "feature" },
+    },
+  };
+}
+
+function seedMainCheckout(): {
+  cwd: string;
+  facts: Extract<CheckoutSnapshotFacts, { isGit: true }>;
+} {
+  const cwd = mkdtempSync(join(tmpdir(), "paseo-ref-derived-main-"));
+  cleanupPaths.push(cwd);
+  git(cwd, ["init", "-b", "main"]);
+  git(cwd, ["config", "user.email", "repro@example.com"]);
+  git(cwd, ["config", "user.name", "Repro"]);
+  writeFileSync(join(cwd, "base.txt"), "base\n");
+  git(cwd, ["add", "base.txt"]);
+  git(cwd, ["commit", "-m", "base"]);
+  git(cwd, ["update-ref", "refs/remotes/origin/main", git(cwd, ["rev-parse", "HEAD"])]);
+  writeFileSync(join(cwd, "local.txt"), "local\n");
+  git(cwd, ["add", "local.txt"]);
+  git(cwd, ["commit", "-m", "local"]);
+
+  return {
+    cwd,
+    facts: {
+      isGit: true,
+      worktreeRoot: cwd,
+      currentBranch: "main",
+      remoteUrl: "https://example.com/repo.git",
+      absoluteGitDir: join(cwd, ".git"),
+      gitCommonDir: join(cwd, ".git"),
+      paseoWorktree: { isPaseoOwnedWorktree: false },
+      storedBaseRef: null,
+      resolvedBaseRef: "main",
+      mainRepoRoot: null,
+      comparisonBaseRef: null,
+      branchRemoteName: "origin",
+      branchMergeRef: "refs/heads/main",
+      upstreamStatus: {
+        ref: "refs/remotes/origin/main",
+        aheadBehind: { ahead: 1, behind: 0 },
+      },
+      pullRequestLookupTarget: { headRef: "main" },
+    },
+  };
+}
+
+test("one comparison refresh updates a shared base and upstream ref", async () => {
+  const { cwd, facts } = seedFeatureCheckout();
+  startGitCommandMetrics();
+  const result = await getCheckoutRefDerivedState(
+    cwd,
+    facts,
+    { aheadBehind: { ahead: 0, behind: 0 }, diffStat: null },
+    new Set(["origin/main"]),
+  );
+  await waitForGitCommandMetricsIdle({ quietMs: 50, timeoutMs: 5_000 });
+  const metrics = stopGitCommandMetrics();
+
+  expect(result.aheadBehind).toEqual({ ahead: 1, behind: 0 });
+  expect(result.upstreamStatus).toEqual({
+    ref: "refs/remotes/origin/main",
+    aheadBehind: { ahead: 1, behind: 0 },
+  });
+  expect(result.diffStat).toEqual({ additions: 1, deletions: 0 });
+  expect(metrics.submissions.map((command) => command.args[0]).sort()).toEqual([
+    "diff",
+    "ls-files",
+    "merge-base",
+    "rev-list",
+  ]);
+});
+
+test("an upstream move refreshes the main checkout shortstat", async () => {
+  const { cwd, facts } = seedMainCheckout();
+  git(cwd, ["update-ref", "refs/remotes/origin/main", git(cwd, ["rev-parse", "HEAD"])]);
+
+  const result = await getCheckoutRefDerivedState(
+    cwd,
+    facts,
+    { aheadBehind: null, diffStat: { additions: 1, deletions: 0 } },
+    new Set(["origin/main"]),
+  );
+
+  expect(result).toEqual({
+    aheadBehind: null,
+    diffStat: null,
+    upstreamStatus: {
+      ref: "refs/remotes/origin/main",
+      aheadBehind: { ahead: 0, behind: 0 },
+    },
+  });
+});
+
+test("an origin move refreshes an untracked main checkout shortstat", async () => {
+  const seeded = seedMainCheckout();
+  const facts = {
+    ...seeded.facts,
+    branchRemoteName: null,
+    branchMergeRef: null,
+    upstreamStatus: null,
+  };
+  git(seeded.cwd, [
+    "update-ref",
+    "refs/remotes/origin/main",
+    git(seeded.cwd, ["rev-parse", "HEAD"]),
+  ]);
+
+  expect(
+    await getCheckoutRefDerivedState(
+      seeded.cwd,
+      facts,
+      { aheadBehind: null, diffStat: { additions: 1, deletions: 0 } },
+      new Set(["origin/main"]),
+    ),
+  ).toEqual({ aheadBehind: null, diffStat: null, upstreamStatus: null });
+});
diff --git a/packages/server/src/utils/checkout-git.ts b/packages/server/src/utils/checkout-git.ts
index 7dcb8bf28..468600de7 100644
--- a/packages/server/src/utils/checkout-git.ts
+++ b/packages/server/src/utils/checkout-git.ts
@@ -1615,8 +1615,22 @@ async function getAheadBehind(
   if (!comparisonBaseRef) {
     return null;
   }
+  return getAheadBehindForComparisonRef(cwd, comparisonBaseRef, currentBranch, context);
+}
+
+export interface UpstreamStatus {
+  ref: string;
+  aheadBehind: AheadBehind;
+}
+
+async function getAheadBehindForComparisonRef(
+  cwd: string,
+  comparisonRef: string,
+  currentBranch: string,
+  context?: CheckoutContext,
+): Promise<AheadBehind | null> {
   const { stdout } = await runGitCommand(
-    ["rev-list", "--left-right", "--count", `${comparisonBaseRef}...${currentBranch}`],
+    ["rev-list", "--left-right", "--count", `${comparisonRef}...${currentBranch}`],
     { cwd, envOverlay: READ_ONLY_GIT_ENV, logger: context?.logger },
   );
   const [behindRaw, aheadRaw] = stdout.trim().split(/\s+/);
@@ -1628,11 +1642,6 @@ async function getAheadBehind(
   return { ahead, behind };
 }
 
-interface UpstreamStatus {
-  ref: string;
-  aheadBehind: AheadBehind;
-}
-
 async function getUpstreamStatus(
   cwd: string,
   currentBranch: string,
@@ -2554,7 +2563,7 @@ function parseCheckoutShortstat(text: string): CheckoutShortstat | null {
 
 const UNTRACKED_SHORTSTAT_MAX_FILES = 500;
 
-async function countUntrackedAdditions(cwd: string): Promise<number> {
+async function countUntrackedAdditions(cwd: string, throwOnGitError = false): Promise<number> {
   try {
     const { stdout } = await runGitCommand(["ls-files", "--others", "--exclude-standard"], {
       cwd,
@@ -2582,14 +2591,25 @@ async function countUntrackedAdditions(cwd: string): Promise<number> {
       }
     }
     return additions;
-  } catch {
+  } catch (error) {
+    if (throwOnGitError) {
+      throw error;
+    }
     return 0;
   }
 }
 
+function handleShortstatGitError(error: unknown, throwOnGitError = false): null {
+  if (throwOnGitError) {
+    throw error;
+  }
+  return null;
+}
+
 async function getCheckoutShortstatUncached(
   cwd: string,
   context?: CheckoutContext,
+  options?: { throwOnGitError?: boolean },
 ): Promise<CheckoutShortstat | null> {
   if (context?.facts?.isGit === false) {
     return null;
@@ -2632,7 +2652,7 @@ async function getCheckoutShortstatUncached(
         cwd,
         envOverlay: READ_ONLY_GIT_ENV,
       }),
-      countUntrackedAdditions(cwd),
+      countUntrackedAdditions(cwd, options?.throwOnGitError),
     ]);
 
     const tracked = parseCheckoutShortstat(stdout);
@@ -2644,8 +2664,8 @@ async function getCheckoutShortstatUncached(
       return { additions: untrackedAdditions, deletions: 0 };
     }
     return null;
-  } catch {
-    return null;
+  } catch (error) {
+    return handleShortstatGitError(error, options?.throwOnGitError);
   }
 }
 
@@ -2713,6 +2733,117 @@ export async function getCheckoutShortstat(
   return getOrLoadCheckoutShortstat(cwd, context, options);
 }
 
+export interface CheckoutRefDerivedState {
+  aheadBehind: AheadBehind | null;
+  diffStat: CheckoutShortstat | null;
+  upstreamStatus: UpstreamStatus | null;
+}
+
+function normalizeRemoteTrackingRef(ref: string): string {
+  return ref.startsWith("refs/remotes/") ? ref.slice("refs/remotes/".length) : ref;
+}
+
+function checkoutFactsConfiguredRemoteRef(
+  facts: Extract<CheckoutSnapshotFacts, { isGit: true }>,
+): string | null {
+  const trackedBranch = facts.branchMergeRef?.startsWith("refs/heads/")
+    ? facts.branchMergeRef.slice("refs/heads/".length)
+    : null;
+  return facts.branchRemoteName && facts.branchRemoteName !== "." && trackedBranch
+    ? `${facts.branchRemoteName}/${trackedBranch}`
+    : null;
+}
+
+function getCheckoutRefMovement(
+  facts: Extract<CheckoutSnapshotFacts, { isGit: true }>,
+  movedRemoteRefs: ReadonlySet<string>,
+): {
+  baseMoved: boolean;
+  comparisonRef: string | null;
+  currentBranch: string | null;
+  normalizedResolvedBase: string | null;
+  upstreamMoved: boolean;
+  upstreamRef: string | null;
+} {
+  const currentBranch = facts.currentBranch;
+  const comparisonRef = facts.comparisonBaseRef;
+  const normalizedMoves = new Set([...movedRemoteRefs].map(normalizeRemoteTrackingRef));
+  const normalizedResolvedBase = facts.resolvedBaseRef
+    ? branchNameFromRef(facts.resolvedBaseRef)
+    : null;
+  const shortstatRemoteRef =
+    currentBranch && (!normalizedResolvedBase || normalizedResolvedBase === currentBranch)
+      ? `origin/${currentBranch}`
+      : null;
+  const baseMoved = [facts.storedBaseRef, facts.resolvedBaseRef, comparisonRef, shortstatRemoteRef]
+    .filter((ref): ref is string => Boolean(ref))
+    .map(normalizeRemoteTrackingRef)
+    .some((ref) => normalizedMoves.has(ref));
+  const upstreamRef = facts.upstreamStatus?.ref ?? checkoutFactsConfiguredRemoteRef(facts);
+  const upstreamMoved = upstreamRef
+    ? normalizedMoves.has(normalizeRemoteTrackingRef(upstreamRef))
+    : false;
+  return {
+    baseMoved,
+    comparisonRef,
+    currentBranch,
+    normalizedResolvedBase,
+    upstreamMoved,
+    upstreamRef,
+  };
+}
+
+export async function getCheckoutRefDerivedState(
+  cwd: string,
+  facts: Extract<CheckoutSnapshotFacts, { isGit: true }>,
+  current: Pick<CheckoutRefDerivedState, "aheadBehind" | "diffStat">,
+  movedRemoteRefs: ReadonlySet<string>,
+  context?: CheckoutContext,
+): Promise<CheckoutRefDerivedState> {
+  const {
+    baseMoved,
+    comparisonRef,
+    currentBranch,
+    normalizedResolvedBase,
+    upstreamMoved,
+    upstreamRef,
+  } = getCheckoutRefMovement(facts, movedRemoteRefs);
+
+  let aheadBehind = current.aheadBehind;
+  let diffStat = current.diffStat;
+  if (baseMoved && currentBranch && facts.resolvedBaseRef) {
+    aheadBehind = await getAheadBehind(cwd, facts.resolvedBaseRef, currentBranch, {
+      ...context,
+      facts,
+    });
+  }
+  if (baseMoved || (upstreamMoved && currentBranch === normalizedResolvedBase)) {
+    diffStat = await getCheckoutShortstatUncached(
+      cwd,
+      { ...context, facts },
+      { throwOnGitError: true },
+    );
+  }
+
+  let upstreamStatus = facts.upstreamStatus;
+  if (upstreamMoved && currentBranch && upstreamRef) {
+    const normalizedUpstream = normalizeRemoteTrackingRef(upstreamRef);
+    const normalizedComparison = comparisonRef ? normalizeRemoteTrackingRef(comparisonRef) : null;
+    const upstreamAheadBehind =
+      baseMoved && normalizedComparison === normalizedUpstream
+        ? aheadBehind
+        : await getAheadBehindForComparisonRef(cwd, upstreamRef, currentBranch, context);
+    upstreamStatus = upstreamAheadBehind
+      ? {
+          ref: facts.upstreamStatus?.ref ?? `refs/remotes/${normalizedUpstream}`,
+          aheadBehind: upstreamAheadBehind,
+        }
+      : null;
+  }
+
+  return { aheadBehind, diffStat, upstreamStatus };
+}
+
 export interface CheckoutWorktreeState {
   isDirty: boolean;
   diffStat: CheckoutShortstat | null;